The post-Iowa Caucus Republican rankings

2/3/16 UPDATE:  Rand Paul has “suspended his campaign.” I alluded to the possibility in my rankings below, but it is now official.

2/3/16 UPDATE 2: Okay, we’ve lost another since my last update. Now Rick Santorum is out.

Iowa is now in the rear-view mirror and the pundits and pollsters and candidates are all breaking down what this means. The results from Monday night only tell us part of the story. The headlines are clear – Ted Cruz won, and Donald Trump did not. But some strong undercurrents started flowing last night launching some candidates forward, while dragging others behind — perhaps for good.  On the Democratic side , we ended up with essentially a tie, but technically a Hillary Clinton victory, thanks to some fortuitous coin flips. No seriously, coin flips helped decided the winner. This is our democracy in action, folks.

There are already two real causalities after the Iowa vote tally.  Mike Huckabee, winner of the Iowa Caucus in 2008, bowed out after collecting 2% support. And so did Martin O’Malley -the long shot, now no shot — third wheel candidate on the Democratic side. I’m not going to count my sanity as a casualty even though I sat through four separate “victory” speeches (Cruz, Trump, Clinton, Sanders).

Let’s take a look at how the Iowa results will affect our GOP candidates. As always, I remind you my loyal reader, that the rankings reflect how much momentum each candidate has picked up rather than who’s literally winning.

#10 Rick Santorum 

Rick Santorum only makes our list because the Republican herd is finally thinning. He was hoping for a 2012 repeat when he surged in Iowa just days before the voting and won the caucus. In 2016, he finished eleventh, behind some candidates who openly ignored Iowa. I’m frankly surprised he hasn’t dropped out already. (Note: Santorum dropped out)

#9 Carly Fiorina 

The candidate who’s most memorable campaign messages include references to the selling of of baby parts and calling Hillary Clinton a liar finds herself adrift. A 7th place showing in a state that on paper should have been more receptive to her and a 7th place position in New Hampshire polling leaves her in trouble.  Why hasn’t she dropped out yet? I’m thinking she’s angling for some future book sales, a media gig, or perhaps a cabinet position for the eventual nominee, something she will most definitely not be herself.

#8 Rand Paul

Pre-vote, Paul was spreading the message that the polls were under-reporting his support. He was expecting double or triple  the numbers the prognosticators had forecast. Alas, they were right and he was wrong. He’s another candidate who might be on the verge of suspending his campaign. New Hampshire polls have him running in the back of the pack. Unless he can miraculously channel some of his father’s mojo from 2012, Rand is just about finished. (In fact, he is)

#7 Chris Christie 

Chris Christie didn’t even pretend that he was trying for Iowa, so a lame finish there (10th) was expected. The problem for Mr. Bridgegate is that he’s pushed all of his chips into the middle in New Hampshire and polls there have him hovering around 5%. He needs a very strong 2nd or 3rd place there or he’s headed back to Jersey for good.

#6 Ben Carson 

Ben Carson finished 4th in Iowa with 10% of the vote – that’s not bad. But at one point he was leading there. With Trump and Cruz occupying much of the audience he’s angling for,  it’s hard to see him moving up unless either or both collapses. The road ahead looks even murkier. Polls in New Hampshire have him scooping up only 3% of the vote.

#5 Jeb Bush 

Bush supporters poured nearly 15 million dollars into Iowa. That money bought their candidate 3% of the vote and a 6th place finish. Or to put it another way, he paid over $2800 per vote. That’s like rewarding each Jeb voter with a brand new Macbook Pro. That’s terrible. I’d want a refund if I’d contributed. Jeb looks like a dead-man walking and will need a big surprise in New Hampshire to keep his hopes alive.

#4 John Kasich 

Kasich had a lousy Iowa result, but he’s been all in on New Hampshire from the beginning. In his favor are some good numbers in New Hampshire. One poll even has him as high as second. If he pulls that off, his campaign might take off. And if finishes lower – well, stick a fork in him.

#3 Donald Trump 

The Donald finished second in Iowa and polls have him leading by a lot in New Hampshire and in the states that follow. So why is he sitting at #3 in our list? Many predicted Trump would win Iowa – that loss puts a ding in his aura of invincibility. And those later polls can change quickly…just ask Howard Dean. I think Trump is staring into the abyss…and the fall might be closer than he realizes.

#2 Ted Cruz 

Ted Cruz powered to the top in Iowa. It was a must-win and he pulled it off. He could finish anywhere from 2nd to 5th in New Hampshire. It almost doesn’t matter. He has a lot of potential support coming up in later states – and as candidates start to drop out – he’ll collect voters from the extreme right wing. He’s going to be around a while and still has a realistic shot at winning the nomination.

#1 Marco Rubio 

Finishing third in Iowa, just a whisker behind Trump is massive for the young Florida senator. It may not look like a win, but those better-than-expected results mean Marco is a real, viable candidate. He will start attracting more money and more endorsements. His positive-sounding message and smooth rhetoric seem to have finally found a resonating note in this year’s electorate. If he finishes above Kasich, Bush, and Christie in New Hampshire – look out – we may be locking in on the next Republican nominee for President.

 

Nov 9: Democratic Rankings and Debate review (sort of)

It’s been a while since we’ve run down the power rankings on the donkey party side of things. Since our last go-round, we’ve lost two candidates — Jim Webb and Lincoln Chaffee — I know, I know, you probably don’t care too much, and a third, Lawrence Lessing, who we  barely realized was even running with the Democrats. And then there’s another candidate, Joe Biden, who never entered, even though everyone was pretty sure he would for a while. What are we left with? Only three candidates!

So when MSNBC decided to host a Democratic debate this past Friday, November 6th, they came up a new format called a “candidate forum.”

“What’s this?” you may be asking yourself, we missed a debate? Well…sort of.

This “forum” thing was hosted by Rachel Maddow. But instead of lining up our three remaining gladiators in a winner-take-all Mad Max style Thunderdome blood match, we ended up with three consecutive, one-on-one interviews. Sure, there was a crowd, and some cheering, and a big video screen and Rachel acted tough, interrupting the candidates here and there…but if the contestants can’t interact with each other it just feels really flat.

So, let’s run down the remaining Democratic contenders according to their momentum with a note or two about their “debate” performance. All I can say is thank goodness for the shenanigans on the Republican side. If all the debates were like this one, I’m afraid that even I couldn’t sit through them all.

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3. MARTIN O’MALLEY

This was M&M’s big shot: a national audience and the full attention of the camera’s on the “debate stage.” The ex-Maryland governor looks like a President and talks like a President, but unfortunately for him he’s coming off as a vanilla-flavored run-of-the-mill politician. His first line pandered to the audience (and hosts), “I love South Carolina!” He gave some nice answers on climate change and education and his time as mayor of Baltimore. But he barely answered a clever question from Maddow about what he would do differently to poll higher than 1%, and whiffed on another about how Democrats could start winning, or at least stop losing so many political elections south of, well, Maryland. O’Malley doesn’t seem like a bad candidate. But he doesn’t come off a particularly good one either. I think we’ve seen this show before, and so far the audience isn’t very impressed.

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2. BERNIE SANDERS

Among the misconceptions Bernie wanted to clarify at the debate was that people think he’s too grumpy and angry. Maybe he doesn’t realize how he sounds, but I’m always half expecting him to start turning green and ripping through his sleeves. But we did see some of the softer side of Bernie. He reminded us that he has seven grandkids, and even poked fun at himself by referring to the SNL Larry David impersonation of him.  His strongest moment came on a question that I think Martin mishandled – how do Democrats start making gains in the south. Bernie “I’m going to go out an talk to white working-class American and say ‘Why do you keep voting against your own best interests? Why are you voting for people who will deny you health care?…they are not going to raise the minimum wage…the people who you should be opposing are not gay people, they’re not immigrants, they are the billionaire class whose greed is destroying American.” Say what you will about the content or the delivery. It’s at least some kind of idea, which the Democratic leadership is entirely lacking right now.

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1. HILLARY CLINTON

After surviving 11 hours in front of a hostile House sub-committee on Benghazi, and a two-hour five person debate last month, this little hour one-on-one back and forth on friendly ground wasn’t much of a challenge for Hillary.To put this in baseball terms, she didn’t hit a home run. Or even a double. Hillary simply drew a walk. In the course of the night she got a question about whether she was an introvert or an extrovert – and amazingly – she somehow answered that she was both.  And then when asked to decide whether she considered a hush puppy “a food, a shoe, or a dog”….she said “The first two.” On another question prodding her to pick any one of the GOP candidates as her Vice-President if she had to, she actually said “I’m dodging this question.” Hillary is a pro. She knows what to say to appeal to the most voters and can bat away the toughest of questions with the best of non-answers. That’s what infuriates the far right, depresses the far left and makes her the strongest contender of them all right now.

Sep 23: Republican Power Rankings

Since our last Power Ranking, we’ve had two candidates drop out, and a debate at the Reagan Library in California.  New polls are out. And then one of the leading contenders said something pretty strange during a Sunday morning news program interview. It all adds up to quite a shuffle in our rankings.

Loyal readers already know this, but as a reminder to those of you who may be new: these ranking are a listing of who is currently carrying the most momentum toward winning the nomination. This is not a list of who is most likely to win, nor is it a list of my personal preferences…let’s get on with it!

 

#10 Lindsay Graham (Last week: –)

 

We have a surprise debutante in our power rankings this week – the sitting Senator from South Carolina! Lindsay aced the Republican Kiddie Table debate, emerging as the winner. Sure he’s polling at less than 1 percent, but maybe we’re seeing the first stages of a rally?

#9 Mike Huckabee (8)

The Governor of “god, guns, grits and gravy” had a lousy debate. His support is floundering right now. So when he accuses the President of “pretending” to be a Christian – I’m not surprised. He needs the attention.

#8 John Kasich (7)

Republican moderates like him. And if Jeb Bush crashes out then maybe he has a shot. He’s polling well in New Hampshire an early bell weather – but he doesn’t have much wind blowing at his back yet.

#7 Chris Christie (10)

Christie, whose outsized persona has somehow been overlooed by the media so far, threw his weight around at the last debate. And it seemed to have sparked things. He’s rising, close to 5% in the polls now…much better than the 1-2% he was floating at before.

#6 Ted Cruz (4)

After Trump and Carson, Cruz is the favorite of the die-hard conservatives in the Republican party. But he’s the only one of the three who’s actually run and won for public office. He’s nabbing roughly 8% in the latest polls.

#5 Jeb Bush (5)

The brother of “W” and son of “H.W” is still treading water. But at least he’s not losing ground. He had a stronger debate presence, tangling several times with the Trumpster and coming out okay. He still has the political machine at his back, but he’s not getting much attention just yet.

#4 Ben Carson (2)

And the former brain surgeon keeps on trucking. Even after a lackluster debate performance, post-debate polls show him running a solid third. And then over the weekend on Meet the Press, Carson seemed to be saying that he didn’t think a Muslim should be President of the United States. Um…sir…ever read Article VI (the last sentence here) of the U.S. Constitution? You might think this kind of thing is a horrible gaffe…but not in this political environment. It looks it’s turned into a boon.

#3 Marco Rubio (6)

There’s a quiet wave of support building for Marco Rubio. His debate performances are sharp and he’s occupying a solid niche: a conservative and part of the  establishment but without too long of a record to make him an easy target. And when faced with a question from George Stephanopolous on Sunday morning about whether he thinks Obama is a Christian, he expressed annoyance with the premise, “Of course he is.” That’s the way to play if you want to win the big one Senator. Well done.

#2 Donald Trump (1)

For the first time since we started ranking the candidates, the Donald has dropped out of the top spot. Even though the reviews of his debate performance were negative, even though he’s losing some of the big lead he has on the rest of the field in the latest poll, even though while taking questions at a speech he didn’t challenge an audience member for saying this country has a muslim problem. And even though he simply refused over the weekend to answer questions about whether Obama was born in this country or is indeed a Christian…he’s still in first place. And still getting a lot of press. Right now he’s the political version of the Hulk, trying to stop him only makes him stronger.

#1 Carly Fiorina (3)

Carly is the talk of the town. Most of the debate watchers last week picked her as the winner, especially after she delivered an epic comeback to Trump.  Her smooth delivery and icy cool demeanor played so well, she shot up to #2 on the Republican table behind only the Donald. Carly is riding a wave, and that’s why she’s at the top of our chart. And as a little bonus for my loyal readers, we California residents know something about Carly the rest of the nation probably doesn’t yet: her campaign for Senate in 2008 produced perhaps the strangest political ad of all time. Here’s to hoping we’ll see more like it.